We have just passed the mid-year mark for 2025. Through 2024, inflation rates declined, interest rates declined, equity markets climbed, and credit spreads returned to pre-Pandemic levels reflecting lessening concerns about defaults and prospects for a recession. The first half of 2025 has seen a resurgence of market volatility and uncertainty. Concerns about a recession have reignited, although not considered a high probability. With the increase in interest rates in 2022, some U.S. insurers took the opportunity to realign their investment portfolios in 2023 and 2024. Additionally, investors struggled with an inverted yield curve that lasted from 2023 through most of 2024. While no longer inverted, the slope of the yield curve is only slightly positive.
